Data Inflation 7 min read

UK Inflation Rises to 3.1% — What It Means for Interest Rates, Savings and Mortgages

Petrol at its most expensive since 2022. A second straight rise in the annual inflation rate. And the underlying numbers telling a calmer story than the headline. Here's what actually happened in August, and what it means for your money.

Published 16 September 2026: CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026, up from 2.9% in July — the second consecutive increase in the annual CPI inflation rate, and 1.1 percentage points above the Bank of England's 2% target. (Source: ONS Consumer Price Inflation bulletin, August 2026.)

The headline number, and the other measures alongside it

CPI rose to 3.1% in the year to August, up from 2.9% in July — a 0.5% monthly rise, compared with 0.3% in August 2025. CPIH (the ONS's preferred measure, including owner-occupiers' housing costs) rose to 3.3%, up from 3.1%. RPI, still used in some pay negotiations, rose to 3.4%, up from 3.2%. All three measures moved in the same direction by a similar margin — this wasn't a quirk of one particular index.

This is now the highest CPI reading in five months, and the second straight increase in the annual rate after a period of steady falls earlier in the year.

What actually drove it — petrol, mostly

Transport, and specifically motor fuels, made the largest upward contribution to the change in the annual rate between July and August. Transport prices rose 4.6% in the year to August, up from 3.6% in July. Motor fuel prices alone were 23.0% higher than a year earlier, up sharply from 15.5% growth in July.

In cash terms: average petrol prices rose to 161.3p a litre in August — the highest since November 2022 — up around 9.1p a litre on July. Diesel rose 14.2p a litre to 181.8p. Airfares added to the transport contribution too, up 6.2% between July and August, driven by long-haul routes.

Behind the fuel price rises sits the same underlying story as the Bank of England's own analysis: continued conflict in the Middle East pushing global oil and gas prices higher and keeping them volatile.

The part of the story the headline number hides

Core CPI — which strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco — held at 2.6%, exactly unchanged from July. Services inflation, an important indicator of domestic price pressure monitored by the Bank, also held at 3.4%. Food inflation stayed at 1.3%, its lowest level since 2021.

In other words, energy — particularly motor fuels — was a major driver of the rise in headline inflation, while the main measures of underlying CPI pressure were unchanged. Goods inflation did rise, from 2.2% to 2.7%, with energy making a large contribution. That distinction matters because the Bank is watching whether the energy shock feeds into wages and broader price-setting. So far, the Bank says indirect pass-through has been limited, although it continues to monitor the risk of second-round effects.

August 2026 at a glance
Measure July August
CPI (headline)2.9%3.1%
CPIH3.1%3.3%
RPI3.2%3.4%
Core CPI2.6%2.6% (unchanged)
Services CPI3.4%3.4% (unchanged)
Transport annual rate3.6%4.6%
Food inflation1.3%1.3% (unchanged)
Source: ONS Consumer Price Inflation bulletin, August 2026.

What it meant for interest rates

This 3.1% reading landed the day before the Bank of England's 17 September rate decision, and it was significant enough — 1.1 percentage points above target — to trigger a statutory open letter from the Governor to the Chancellor explaining why. Despite that, the MPC's vote didn't move from July: still 6–3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with the same three members (Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill) voting for a rise. The Bank's own reasoning leaned heavily on the same core-versus-headline distinction covered above — read the for exactly why the vote held even as the headline number rose.

What it means for your money

Mortgages: Bank Rate itself didn't change following this data. If your mortgage directly tracks Bank Rate, there was therefore no Bank Rate-driven change to your rate or payment, subject to your lender's product terms. New fixed-rate pricing depends on swap rates, which respond to inflation expectations rather than a single data release — pricing had already been adjusting through September ahead of both the CPI print and the MPC decision.

Savings: Higher inflation erodes the real value of cash sitting in low-rate accounts faster — worth checking whether your easy access rate is still competitive rather than assuming it's kept pace. Our compares current top rates.

Household budgets: Motor fuel prices were the clearest pressure in August, while food inflation remained at 1.3%. That means households that drive regularly may have felt the latest inflation increase more directly at the petrol pump than in their weekly food shop.

What is the UK inflation rate right now?
CPI inflation was 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026, up from 2.9% in July — the second consecutive increase in the annual CPI inflation rate and the highest reading in five months. (Source: ONS, published 16 September 2026.)
Why did inflation rise in August?
Transport, particularly motor fuels, made the largest upward contribution to the change in the annual rate. Motor fuel prices rose 23.0% year-on-year, with average petrol reaching 161.3p a litre — the highest since November 2022 — largely reflecting continued volatility in global oil and gas prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East. (Source: ONS Consumer Price Inflation bulletin, August 2026.)
Is this the same as the Bank of England raising interest rates?
No — this is inflation data from the ONS, a separate publication from the Bank of England's rate decision, though the two are closely linked (this reading was published the day before the MPC's 17 September announcement). The Bank held Bank Rate at 3.75%. Its September assessment noted that much of the inflation overshoot was being driven directly by energy, while indirect pass-through had so far been limited. However, the MPC also judged that risks to the inflation outlook had shifted further to the upside. See our full breakdown of the September rate decision for the Bank's reasoning.
What is core inflation, and why does it matter here?
Core CPI strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco — the most volatile categories — to give a read on underlying price pressure. It held at 2.6% in August, unchanged from July, even as headline CPI rose to 3.1%. Together with unchanged services inflation, this indicates that the latest increase was heavily influenced by energy rather than reflecting the same acceleration across all underlying measures.
When is the next UK inflation data released?
The next ONS Consumer Price Inflation release, covering September 2026 data, is due 21 October 2026 — before the Bank of England's next rate decision on 5 November.
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